If .367% of the population is a victim of violent crime each year, over a 50 year period that means (if I did the math correctly) the chance of being a victim of a violent crime goes to 16.8%. I suppose if it is the same people being victims each year, the likelihood would be lower.
Thank you, I do appreciate that. It's, of course especially to them, been an emotionally devastating experience.
Primary points of my post...statistics don't matter when it happens to you and properly insuring for what you can't, financially, afford to lose is a wise investment/expense.
NRA Benefactor
marcinsti,
Good start. Let's say the numbers you found are right and ignore the affect that carry reduces crime rate. But you should add the calculation that if .367% of the population is a victim of violent crime each year, in an average life span say of 85 years, what are the odds that you will be a victim of violent crime. It is a lot, lot higher. I'm too tired tonight to look it up and figure it out. But you can.
Think of it like this. In a military branch, if the casualty rate is 10% each mission, it does not take too many missions before the odds are highly stacked that you will be a casualty. Think of that but on a lower probability basis.
Another way of looking at the possible need for a SD weapon is to consider your lifestyle, including the times and places you travel and other personal factors.
Criminal attacks happen most frequently at times and places where it can be done with the least chance of identification or interference. Parking lots, parks, low-traffic streets and alleys, rural roads, high-crime neighborhoods, etc. are most dangerous. Late evening through the early morning hours are attack prime times. Anyone who is out and about in these places during the hours of greatest danger will be at highest risk.
Evaluate your lifestyle. If avoiding attack is a high priority, regulate to the extent possible where and when you shop, go out for dining, recreation and other activities. This should substantially reduce your risk of attack. If you can't or don't want to regulate your activities, carrying a weapon may be appropriate.
I'm retired and I can avoid high risk places and times. Much of the time I don't feel the need to carry. There's always some element of risk, but I feel safe most of the time.
When I was in my twenties and driving my girlfriend home after a late movie in Oakland, CA, I stopped behind a string of cars at a red light. A screaming man ran across the line of cars pursued by an armed man who shot and killed him. Being stuck in traffic, there wasn't a thing I could do but pray that we wouldn't be involved. I suppose statistics and probabilities saved us that night but having a .45 auto on me would have made me feel a lot better. Until the police arrive, you are your own first line of defense. Never forgot that.
Life member - NRA
Life member - CA Rifle & Pistol Assn.
SW desert rat